
Waterlogged ground after prolonged or heavy rain, made worse by the heavy, poorly drained glacial-till soils common across central Indiana, which hold water near the surface rather than draining it away. Add wind against a fully leafed crown acting as a sail and the load climbs sharply. Underneath, there is usually a pre-existing root defect doing the real work: root decay, roots severed by a trench or a driveway on one side, a shallow plate on a compacted or high-water-table site, or a tree planted too deep that never anchored properly.
A tree standing at an angle it was not standing at last week. The tell is at the ground, not the top: soil cracked in a curve or a full ring around the base, a ridge or mound of lifted turf on the side away from the lean, a gap opening between trunk and soil on the lean side, roots suddenly visible that used to be buried, and grass torn or wrinkled. Water standing in the crack. Sometimes a groaning or ticking sound in wind.