
Within weeks. Leaf drop is a tree's cheapest response to almost any stress, because leaves are what cost it water. So the symptom alone means only that something is wrong, and the useful question is what — the range runs from harmless to terminal. Foliar diseases like anthracnose on sycamore, ash, and maple, or apple scab on crabapple, strip a tree, look alarming, and generally do not kill it. Drought, girdling roots, a buried root collar, and construction injury drop leaves for a reason that will still be present next year. Vascular wilts — Verticillium in maple and redbud, oak wilt in the red oak group — drop leaves because the plumbing is being blocked, and those are serious.
One season of early leaf drop is not dangerous and does not put anyone on a rope. The tree either refoliates or coasts to next spring; one year is affordable. Repeat years are what matter — each defoliation draws down stored reserves, and by the third consecutive year you generally see twig dieback, a thinner crown, and secondary borers or cankers arriving. That is where a survivable annoyance turns into a declining tree. The exception that moves fast is vascular wilt: a red oak with oak wilt can go from first symptoms to dead within a single growing season and spread to neighboring oaks through root grafts, so wilting and dropping in a red oak in midsummer deserves a same-week look rather than a wait.