
Months to years, not days. Decay advances on the order of inches per year in most species, so a trunk that is stable this spring is generally stable next spring. What changes while you wait is your margin — each season the cavity widens slightly and every load above it, a full leaf canopy or an ice storm or a limb that simply grew heavier, acts on less wood. Reassess yearly, and again immediately after any storm that takes a major limb, because losing a limb redistributes load onto the decayed section.
Usually, and often for many more years. Ants alone are not grounds for removal, and spraying the trunk changes nothing structural — it kills foragers, not decay. The decision rests on how much sound wood surrounds the hollow. A common practitioner rule of thumb treats a stem retaining roughly a third of its radius as sound shell wall as reasonably stable, but that is a starting point for assessment, not a verdict (UNVERIFIED as a precise threshold; open cavities and off-center decay change the math). Fix the water source: reroute a downspout, correct a grade that buries the flare, pull mulch off the trunk. Ants entering the house are a separate pest-control problem, and cutting the tree may not resolve it.